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Daimler Spin-off (Truck Business) Notes

Rich Howe2021-02-05T07:45:11-05:00

February 4, 2021

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I research micro caps and special situations at https://t.co/DPLkAsgVH8.

Rich Howe @stockspinoffss·

Tomorrow at 9:30am, I will publish my highest conviction idea:

Teaser:
- Trading at PE of 1x. Peers trade at 2x-5x
- Experiencing indiscriminate selling
- Div/buyback (~16% current yield) will force a re-rate

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Rich Howe @stockspinoffss·

Anyone know why $BHF doesn't pay a dividend?

If they are going to earn $16 (consensus) this year. Why not pay out $7 (44% p/o ratio). Yield would be 16%. Would force market to re-rate it.

They have been doing buybacks, but it hasn't forced a re-rate (stock trades at 3x).

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Rich Howe @stockspinoffss·

Oil/gas stocks are cheap but I haven’t found anything as attractive as thungela #tga trading at 1.5x fcf. Policy to pay out at least 30% of fcf as div.

No debt. Most energy names you have to wait until mid ‘22 to get capital return.

TGA will announce div in feb if not soon.

Eric Nuttall@ericnuttall

How cheap are energy stocks??? I just met with a $500MM Montney producer trading at a 2023 40% FCF yield (to their EV). They think they can keep production flat for 10 years = ability to privatize and payoff all their debt 4 times over before their project starts to decline…

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Aiming Higher @AimingHigher4·

No one can complain for not owning #TGA and watching it go up and up when a Bloomberg analyst says it’s on a 138% free cash yield to market cap !! You’ll be very lucky if you can find 30-40% for a net cash miner! This is why #Thungela will continue to do a significant re-rate https://twitter.com/acosgrove003/status/1436428000879386637

Andrew Cosgrove@acosgrove003

A) Valuation at diff px decks
B) FCF % of Today’s EV & Mkt Cap at diff px decks
#CoalTwitter 2

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Jim Ludlow @JimLudlow11·

Seems ridiculous to me that $GTX trading at $7.42 has Jan '23 $5 LEAPS trading at $2.95. That is a mere 53 cent premium. A number of analyses have an intrinsic value of $10-15 for $GTX. I backed up the truck on this one.

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