Volkswagen Spinoff Notes

September 2, 2022 Update

Good write-up on the Porsche spinoff

  • With Porsche being valued at ~$85b this would make the spin equal to all of VW Group currently

May 20, 2022 Update

Good write-up on the Porsche spin off

  • The official IPO of Porsche is not until this fall
  • Porsche has a proposed market value of $84b as its own company
  • Currently Volkswagen has a market value with Porsche under it of $92b
  • This demonstrates the value that could be harnessed in the event of the spin
  • Below shows Porsche’s performance compared to the other branches of the Volkswagen umbrella

 

April 23, 2022 Update

Volkswagen Group has said there is the possibility of it spinning off Porsche in a partial IPO in Q4 2022.
I like the story and think it’s compelling, but I think it’s early.
This would be a home run if VW agreed to IPO and then spin-off Porsche.
But from the press release, they are just initiating a review of a potential IPO.
And VW is going to continue to hold a majority stake after the IPO. This won’t close the valuation gap. If they actually spin-off Porsche I would be interested but not until the spin-off is imminent.
My experience with SOTP plays like this is you can wait until the last minute to get involved and still generate really nice returns. For example, IAC was trading at a negative EV (backing out its stake in MTCH and ANGI) JUST prior to the MTCH spin-off.