MARKET DASHBOARD
UPCOMING POSITION EXPIRATIONS
March 15, 2024
CMI Iron Condor
Be on the lookout for a closeout trade by Thursday of this week.
MARKET COMMENTARY
For the first time in a while, bad economic news released this past week was also bad news for the stock market.
On the data side, multiple measures of employment painted a convincing and consistent picture of a weakening job market, with multiple companies across a variety of industries and geographies cutting employees, reducing new hiring rates, and handing out lower pay increases. In February, the U.S. unemployment rate hit its highest levels in over two years, while both the ISM Manufacturing and Services Employment Indexes fell below 50, confirmation of a contracting labor market.
Source: Bloomberg, Edward Jones
While last week also saw another encouraging BLS employment report, with a reported February jobs growth number of 275,000, there was a fair amount of discounting of that initial figure, given the sizeable downward revisions to several previous months’ numbers.
Source: @KobeissiLetter
In any case, the release was undercut by the announced job cuts report also hitting their highest levels in almost a year.
Source: Daily Chartbook
For just the third time in 2024, all three of the major indices were down in the same week, with the NASDAQ and the Dow giving up around -1%, while the S&P 500 declined just a fraction of a percent after a triple-digit decline on Friday. With all three still hovering around all-time highs, it’s way too early to say that the market’s upward momentum has been interrupted.
However, this week’s February CPI report has the potential to have a much larger impact on the market. With inflation’s true trend still very much in doubt, we could see substantial market volatility even with a relatively slight deviation from the consensus forecast.
If we get an inflation rate that’s higher than the current consensus, further pushing out the timeline for the Fed to cut rates, it could result in the first significant market reversal of the past 6 months. Alternatively, a lower-than-expected inflation number is all but certain to push indices into new record territory.
If we do get significant volatility, expect a trade recommendation (or two)!
Source: Trading Economics
STAT OF THE WEEK
The Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index (MUVVI) fell to 203.8, a decline of 13.1% from a year ago. The index was down 0.1% against the month of January 2024.
Source: Manheim
BONUS STAT OF THE WEEK
Source: Daily Chartbook
BONUS STAT OF THE WEEK 2
Source: @AJToce
And, finally…
Source: Daily Chartbook
PORTFOLIO COMMENTARY
Alibaba (BABA) Bull Call Spread
No new company news this week.
No new company news this week.
No new company news this week.
No new company news this week.
No new company news this week.
Warner Bros. Discovery (WBD) Diagonal Spread
Dune: Part Two continued to rake it in at the box office, where the film has grossed an impressive $367 Million worldwide in just its second week since release, and with a number of major markets still untapped. Current projections are for the film’s total box office to fall between $700 and $900 Million.
Source: Collider
Building on the momentum that it generated in its blockbuster opening weekend, Dune: Part Two delivered an excellent performance in its sophomore showing at the worldwide box office. The epic science-fiction sequel held on remarkably well in holdover territories, as it opened in the crucial market of China this weekend. All in all, Dune: Part Two is now almost certain to finish in the upper range of its lifetime projections, as it passed a couple of major milestones at both the domestic and global box office this weekend.
With $157 million domestically and another $210 million from over 70 overseas markets, Dune: Part Two’s cumulative global haul now stands at $367 million. This past week, the film overtook the lifetime domestic earnings of its predecessor, Dune, which was infamously released day-and-date in both theaters and on streaming. The first Dune concluded its theatrical run with over $108 million domestically and over $400 million worldwide; it recently added $30 million to its global haul after a one-week re-release in the run-up to Dune: Part Two.
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