My Favorite Special Situations Investors to Follow
One of the most common questions I get asked is, “Who are the best people to follow for special situations ideas?”
In this article, I will share my favorites.
I intend to update this article periodically because 1) I know I will forget a few people and 2) I’m sure I will discover other great investors.
Let’s go in alphabetical order…
Asif Suria
I’ve followed Asif for many years. His focus is insider trading and merger arbitrage, and he is excellent at both specialties.
Merger arbitrage is a category of special situation investing that I find tricky. I tend to gravitate to the high spread deals, but following Asif and reading his book has helped me improve my hit rate.
Here is a great example of one of Asif’s great calls (JWN was ultimately taken private for $24.25).
Andrew Walker
https://www.yetanothervalueblog.com/
Andrew creates a ton of high quality content through X, his podcast, and his free and premium service.
He is incredibly detail oriented and unearths really interesting ideas.
One idea that sticks out to me was Andrew’s recommendation to buy Kontoor Brands after its dividend was cut which led to forced selling pressure as a dividend focused ETF had to sell millions of shares…
The stock ended up tripling in about 6 months!
Chris Demuth Jr.
I’ve followed Chris on Seeking Alpha for a long time.
I think of Chris as the OG of special situations investing. He’s been investing and writing about special situations since 2007..
I love Chris’s writing. He writes incredibly clearly and gets right to the point.
His articles are fun to read.
Chris has had a ton of winners in the spin-off, merger arbitrage and de-SPAC space.
Here’s an example of one of Chris’s many winners in the merger arbitrage space:
Clark Square Value
Clark Square Value doesn’t exclusively write about special situations, but oftentimes, he unearths some compelling opportunities.
A good example is his work on CBD, a Brazilian HoldCothat announced in 2023 that it would spin-off its stake in Grupo Exito, creating an asymmetric setup.
Clark Street Value
I’ve been subscribed to MDC’s wordpress blog for many years!
MDC has a full time non-equity related job so he has to be efficient with his time and writing. And I appreciate that. He gets right to the point and is crystal clear on his assumptions.
He writes about spin-offs, liquidations, thrift conversions, broken biotechs and much more.
His performance has been terrific.
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Colin King
Colin cut his teeth as a buyside special situations analyst but then pivoted to the world of entrepreneurship.
He and a partner have built a $26MM holding company in 6 years. Listen to this podcast for the full story.
Colin is on my list because he writes about special situation stocks in his spare time at Value Don’t Lie.
Colin has had many great calls. His most recent is highlighting the STRZ stub when it was trading at a negative value ahead of the Lionsgate Studios spin-off.
Christian Ryther
Christian manages a concentrated partnership and often invests in spin-offs.
I love reading his quarterly updates and comparing notes on recent spin-offs.
He’s had many great calls. One that comes to mind is Jackson Financial (JXN), a hated annuity spin-off which has been an absolute monster.
Jeremy Raper
Jeremy recently shut down his paid research service but will continue to share his insights on X.
Jeremy is a great investor who is active in spin-offs, merger arbitrage, and small cap activism.
I would say Jeremy did pretty well on the Twitter merger arb….
David Bastion
David manages an investment partnership and is up to speed on all spin-offs and liquidations.
He is a must follow on X.
I’ve made money following his advice on Unit Corp (UNTC) and Net Lease Office Properties (NLOP).
His fund has compounded at ~25% gross since inception.
Nat Stewart
Nat is very active in the small / micro cap space.
He manages a partnership and also runs an investment newsletter service.
I first discovered Nat when he profiled RMR Group as an interesting special situation. He stock went up 5x over the next two years.
Nat has kept the good picks coming, highlighting NLOP below $13 (It now trades for $33).
Special Sits Cap Mgmt
Special Sits Cap Mgmt is a relatively new follow for me.
I found him when I was researching the Vivendi spin-off as he posted some great analysis which helped me sort through a complicated situation.
Special Situations Investments
I’ve followed Dalius for a long time and he is excellent.
Similar to Asif, Dalius is excellent at merger arbitrage. He has a great sense for when a deal is likely to close or not.
He also has a global approach and often highlights stocks that I’ve never seen written up elsewhere.
Toff Capital
Toff is a fund manager and also runs the Monday Monitor which highlights interesting special situations and insider trading.
I love reading it each week.
Toff’s analysis on Havas helped me get up to speed and make ~30% in a month!
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